This Tuesday, July 1, is Free Agent Day in the NHL: the day when, starting at noon Eastern, General Managers wave around fat stacks of cash trying to attract the attention of players who have recently been released from the chains of their previous contracts. It must be a good day to be such a player. I, for one, will be watching all the excitement unfold all day. I don’t have to go to work, with Free Agent Day having been designated a national holiday in Canada.

Free Agent Day is a time of great uncertainty for NHL teams, and the Sens are no exception. There are 11 players currently on the Ottawa roster who played in at least a few games for the team last season and who are set to become either restricted or unrestricted free agents on Tuesday. Let us examine who these players are and see if we can use our incredible store of hockey knowledge (and our advanced Googling abilities) to make a wild guess at what might be their fates.

So Long, Farewell, Auf Wiedersehen, Goodnight: The Soon-to-Be Departed

Wade Redden: This is an easy one. We already know that Redden, after spending his entire NHL career to this point with the Sens, will not be back. Redden is viewed as one of the top free agent defencemen available, and he told TSN he’s got a backup phone ready for the day, all the better to field offers with. It’s going to be very strange seeing Wade with another team next year, but I think a fresh start is going to do him (and the Sens) good. I’m very curious about where he might end up. We know that the Oilers and Sharks have both tried to pry him out of the Sens’ grasp, which actually was not all that tight, within the last year or so, and supposedly Jacques Martin in Florida has an interest in revisiting their past together. Edmonton is close to home for Redden, but I wonder if they’ve got the money to sign another expensive defenceman with Sheldon Souray already under a big contract and RFA Joni Pitkanen to re-sign. With the Sharks seeming unlikely to re-sign Brian Campbell, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go after Redden again.

Ray Emery: Well I guess anything’s possible, so maybe the Sens will re-sign Emery. The whole buyout process was just a smokescreen! Or not. I’m sure some team, somewhere, will take a chance on signing him to a cheap, two-way deal. Sam McCaig at The Hockey News recently offered a list of nine teams where Emery might fit in. I won’t know whether to laugh or cry if he actually ends up in Detroit.

Randy Robitaille: Bryan Murray apparently described Robitaille as a “failed experiment,” so I can’t imagine the Sens re-signing him. Actually, I can’t imagine anyone signing him. Dude had 29 points playing significant time on a line with Heatzza. I’m pretty sure I would have cracked the 40 point mark playing with them.

Martin Lapointe: Murray said at one point that he had no interest in re-signing Lapointe. There’s always a market for a gritty, grizzled veteran with two Cup rings, though, and I’m sure he’ll get picked up somewhere.

Mike Commodore: When Murray said he had no interest in re-signing Lapointe, he also said he had no interest in re-signing Commodore. Though he did change his tune a little at one point, stating that he’d talked to Commodore’s agent, and Commodore — who was, frighteningly, the Sens’ leading scorer in this year’s playoffs — told the National Post he’d consider coming back, I still think it’s very unlikely we’ll see that stunning red afro in Ottawa come next fall.

They’ll (Possibly) Be Back: Negotiations Are Underway

Antoine Vermette: Vermette will be a restricted free agent on July 1, meaning that he could attract an offer sheet if another team really really wants to try to lure him away from Ottawa with shiny objects and the promise of time on the first line. However, the Sens have made Vermette a qualifying offer, which, if I understand the CBA correctly (far from certain), means that the Sens will have the right to match any such offer that is made in order to retain Vermette’s services. Le Droit reported earlier this week that the Sens have offered Vermette a deal that could keep him in Ottawa for “several years,” but Vermette wants to take his time and consider it before giving up his chance to become a UFA. It’s also being reported that Vermette may end up taking the Sens to arbitration, which would likely net him a one-year deal. This one’s a puzzle. I like Vermette, but I sometimes struggle to see where exactly he fits in on the Sens’ roster. The trade rumours that pop up in relation to him year after year suggest that maybe other people have the same issue.

Andrej Meszaros: Like Vermette, Meszaros will become a restricted free agent on July 1, and, also like Vermette, Meszaros has been given a qualifying offer by the Sens.  Unlike Vermette, though, Meszaros’ name appears on TSN’s list of the nine RFAs most likely to attract an offer sheet. He’s not the top defenceman on the list — Mike Green and Jay Bouwmeester are probably both more desirable — but he might be an attractive option to some teams out there. Given the thinness of the Sens’ blue line corps right now, I would be surprised if Murray doesn’t make every effort to keep Meszaros around. On the other hand, I wouldn’t pay him more than the $3.5 million Chris Phillips is making. That does seem to be the figure being floated as what Meszaros may ask for and receive. Doesn’t Anton Volchenkov look like an incredible bargain at a cap hit of $2.5 million right now?

Cory Stillman: According to the Sun, there’s still a chance Stillman could sign in Ottawa before July 1, but it will depend on what happens with Vermette and Meszaros, whose contracts could determine whether or not the Sens can afford him. Personally, I hope they’re able to work out a deal. Meanwhile, Darren Dreger at TSN asked a group of hockey people to rank the top ten unrestricted free agent forwards, and Stillman has made the list. If there is significant interest from other teams, then obviously Stillman could be priced right out of the Sens’ range if they don’t get a deal done before Tuesday.

Shean Donovan: As I’ve written before, Donovan is apparently willing to take a pay cut to stay with the Sens if he’s offered a two-year contract but the Sens are only offering one year. Bryan Murray, if you’re reading this: just give the man his frickin’ extra year!! Seriously. Unless Murray really doesn’t see a spot for Donovan on the Sens’ roster, which is of course possible, then I don’t see what the problem is.

Luke Richardson: The Sun has summed up Richardson’s situation for us:

Veteran Luke Richardson has informed Murray of his desire to play another year, but for now he’s going to have to be content with participating in the waiting game. As it stands, the Senators’ blue line shapes up like this: Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, Meszaros, Brian Lee, Christoph Schubert and Lawrence Nycholat, a Binghamton farmhand whose deal (signed by former GM John Muckler) calls for him to earn $600,000 on a one-way contract next season. “We certainly need one more defenceman, at least,” Murray said yesterday. “And I wouldn’t be averse to getting a second. But they are hard to find.” The 39-year-old Richardson suited up for 76 games with the Senators last year but was phased out in favour of Lee down the stretch and in the playoffs. “To be fair to Luke, I have not offered him anything,” said Murray. “When free agency time kind of gets through a certain period, we’ll look at our roster, and if we need that extra guy, and if he’s willing to come back in a lesser role, then we would address that at that time. He wants to play, I believe, and he was good for us last year. He’s certainly the character kind of guy that I want and like. What happened there, when Nycholat got the one-way contract, it kind of screwed Luke a little bit, as far as his opportunity to be that 6-7 guy. That’s what I have to look at now.”

So, it doesn’t sound like he’s in a rush to sign with anyone else.

Josh Hennessy: I’ll be honest — I know he’s played 15 games with the Sens over the last two seasons, but I can’t remember anything about him. All I know is that he’s a forward, and the Sens have made him a qualifying offer so they hold on to his rights.

Coming up later: a post looking at some of the other players who will be floating around aimlessly without contracts for a few minutes on Tuesday. I will consider which ones I think the Sens might do well to pursue, and which ones they ought to avoid, when they’re trying to fill the holes in their roster.