Sens at Land’s End

‘Twas the night before hockey, and all through the land
Hockey fans were stirring and feeling just grand;
Year previews were posted on blogs with great care,
In hopes that this season would be something rare.
Some teams’ fans were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of Stanley Cups danced in their heads;
But I in my Sens shirt, my jersey, and cap
Had settled for hoping for better than crap.

I’m not going to attempt a full season preview or prediction post. Why? Because it’s pointless. Some wildcard scenario no one anticipated always comes into play during the season. Players get hurt. Teams collapse or overperform for no apparent reason. This year, the Olympics will act as a major x-factor: some teams may suffer from Olympic fatigue, while other teams could benefit greatly from it.

So, instead of doing predictions, I’ll point out what I think are the most interesting stories going into the season.

Western Conference

Yawn: The Avalanche will be utterly terrible. The Red Wings will overcome obstacles such as Chris Osgood sucking and team-wide Olympic fatigue to win the Central Division for the 600th straight year. The Sharks will act out the same old story — regular season dominance, playoff choke — but this time with 100% more douchebag on their roster.

No Comment: Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes, St. Louis Blues. A lack of knowledge prevents me from saying anything useful.

Interesting Stories

Calgary Flames – Miikka Kiprusoff hasn’t played fewer than 74 games in a season since before the lockout. If he starts for Finland in the Olympics, which seems very possible, he’ll risk burnout come playoff time. Unfortunately, the Flames always play terribly in front of backup Curtis McElhinney, who had a 1-6 record last season. They may want to work on that. More questions: is Dion Phaneuf really any good? Is Olli Jokinen actually a locker room cancer? Can Darryl Sutter do a better job of cap management so the team isn’t left having to play with a short bench in crucial late season games? Early indications on the last thing would suggest not.

Edmonton Oilers – It will be interesting to see if new head coach Pat Quinn can get this team on track. He and goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin are the biggest unknowns here. Khabibulin shocked many in 2008-2009 with his great performance for the Blackhawks, who put him on waivers early in the season only to watch him step in and save their bacon after Cristobal Huet flamed out later on. But Khabibulin isn’t getting any younger.

Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are my pick to win the Northwest; however, no other team will be as affected by the Olympics as they are. With the tournament taking place in their home building, the Canucks will be banished from Vancouver for all of February and half of March, embarking on an epic six-week, 14-game road trip to accommodate the games. There’s also the question of what kind of impact the Olympics will have on Roberto Luongo. If Luongo is named Canada’s starting goaltender, he will face a ton of pressure as well as some extra wear and tear. If he is not named Canada’s starter, that could have a psychological impact (either crushing or motivating) on him as well.

Chicago Blackhawks – The Blackhawks can be summed up in a few talking points: promising young team; questionable goaltending (and there’s no bacon-saving Khabibulin waiting in the wings this season); injuries to Marian Hossa and Adam Burish; Patrick Kane beat up a cab driver; Patrick Sharp is hot; cap issues next offseason. They should make it interesting for the Red Wings this season, but I’m not sure they have enough to catch them.

Columbus Blue Jackets – My other men will, I am sure, continue to impress in 09-10. Steve Mason will suffer no sophomore slump. Derick Brassard will definitely not get injured again. Nikita Filatov will score 30 goals and win the Calder Trophy (unless Erik Karlsson does). Rick Nash will tear it up at the Olympics but, because he eats such healthy food, will never feel even remotely tired. Everything will be perfect, and the team will not only make the playoffs again, but this time actually win a game — nay, a round! In all seriousness: the Jackets haven’t made major changes this offseason but if Brassard makes a strong comeback and Antoine Vermette continues to click with his not-so-new team, then the best additions to the team might come from within. A lot depends on whether Mason keeps up the form he showed last season. If he does, and if no major disasters occur, the Jackets could do very well.

Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks’ first line of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan is exciting to watch and Randy Carlyle is an excellent coach, but there are several areas of uncertainty for the team going foward. They’ll have an intriguing goaltending battle between highly-paid veteran Jean-Sebastien Giguere and youthful playoff sensation Jonas Hiller. I’m also interested to see if/how Ryan Whitney and/or James Wisniewski will step up to fill the departed Chris Pronger’s freakishly big shoes. Other question marks include Getzlaf’s recovery from offseason surgery; the advancing age of Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer; and the chance that Ryan goes through some kind of second year jinx. Several Ducks (including Niedermayer, Getzlaf, Selanne, Saku Koivu, and possibly Whitney, Perry, and Ryan) also seem likely to go to the Olympics, which may prevent them from duplicating their awesome finish to last season. Still, I think this should be another good year in Anaheim.

Dallas Stars – The Stars’ total failure last season was definitely the most shocking underachievement of the year to my mind. They looked so impressive in the 2008 playoffs, but then Brenden Morrow got hurt, Marty Turco sucked, and Sean Avery apparently messed up their chemistry so badly that they never recovered. Avery is gone, Morrow is back, and they’ve got a capable backup for Turco in the form of Alex Auld, which, according to my Stars fan friend, is all Turco really needed. My feeling is that they should rebound.

Eastern Conference

Yawn: Even if the Bruins don’t perform up to last year’s standard, they will win the Northeast due to a lack of competition. The Islanders will suck. The Devils and the Penguins will make the playoffs. The Rangers will finish near the middle of the pack.

No Comment: Atlanta Thrashers, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning. Sorry Southeast Division, I just don’t know you that well.

Interesting Stories

Washington Capitals – The Caps are always interesting if only because of Alex Ovechkin. This year, the development of young goalie Semyon Varlamov (and the fate of Jose Theodore) will also be something to keep an eye on.

Philadelphia Flyers – The Broad Street Bullies trading for Chris Pronger this offseason seemed like fate: at last, Pronger and his flying elbows are with the team he was always meant to play for. Watch your heads, Penguins. Also watch your backs, because on paper this is an excellent team. I think they’ll win the Atlantic Division, partly because the Penguins will be tired thanks to two long playoff runs and Olympic appearances for some of their important players, and partly because the Flyers should just be that good. They may even finish first in the East. Goaltending is a question mark: will Ray Emery’s return to the NHL be triumphant or disastrous? Philly’s defense is so solid that it may not matter that much.

The Northeast Division other than the Bruins – Boston is the clear alpha wolf in this pack; everyone else is pretty much a complete wildcard. The Habs have undergone a coaching change (welcome back to the Northeast, Jacques Martin) and a massive amount of roster change. The Leafs, in case you haven’t heard, are now very truculent and expect to compensate for a lack of goalscoring by doing violence to their opponents. The Sabres are still the Sabres, which means they could finish anywhere from 4th to 14th depending on injuries, Ryan Miller, and luck.

Which brings me to those confounding Ottawa Senators. We’ve watched them play on an extreme rollercoaster-esque cycle for the last few years: down in 2006, up in 2007, down in 2008. (It’s unfortunate that this pattern seems to follow the calendar year rather than the hockey season, but that’s the Sens for you.) They were on a definite upswing after Cory Clouston took over in early 2009. A major question now is: can Clouston keep it going — and will the team be able to pull off a full season of good play? There are, of course, many other questions. Will Alex Kovalev perform well? Will Jonathan Cheechoo actually produce 20 goals? How will Kovalev, Cheechoo, and Milan Michalek fit into the lineup? Peter Regin, Erik Karlsson, and Matt Carkner have all made the team: will they continue the play that got them there? Will Mike Fisher be productive on the wing? Is the defense any good? Can Pascal Leclaire stay healthy?

That’s a lot of questions. It seems too much to hope that everything will work out, so I’m not expecting much from this team. That said, I don’t know that the Sens are as bad as many people would have us believe. Certainly, the team’s depth at forward is much improved over last year. I also think Clouston was doing something right, and I see no reason to think he’ll suddenly become an awful coach. A full season playing under his system should benefit the team. The bottom line for me is that the Sens are no more or less of an unknown quantity than either of their fellow eastern Canadian teams, yet it seems more prognosticators are forecasting positive things for Toronto and/or Montreal than for Ottawa. In Puck Daddy’s staff prediction post this morning, for example, no one had the Sens placing higher than the Habs and only two of five posters guessed they’d finish ahead of the Leafs. Personally, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Ottawa did better than both Montreal and Toronto. I also wouldn’t die of shock if this team happened to squeak into the playoffs.

It’s the NHL: anything can happen.