Sens at Land's End

I’ve watched bits and pieces of all the first round series, but have seen the least of Carolina-New Jersey and Calgary-Chicago: both have been conflicting with other games I want to see and things I have to do. I will watch the Flames and Hawks play today, but I may not get to see Patrick Kane, who is a game-time decision for Chicago. It seems that while Jonathan Toews has had no trouble stepping up his game for the playoffs, the smaller Kane has been a bit more vulnerable to the Flames’ abuse. (CORRECTION: It seems Kane has the flu. I assumed he was hurt because I saw him looking very pained after taking a big hit the other day.) The Canes-Devils series looks likely to be a long one. I’m surprised — but not too surprised — to see the Devils apparently getting back on track.

For me, the biggest surprise so far has been the Rangers. I think we all knew Henrik Lundqvist was probably going to outplay Jose Theodore, but it seems very few people foresaw just how big a problem the entire goaltending situation in this series was going to be for the Caps. Obviously, if they can’t get their offense going today, they may as well pack it in. What would lie ahead for them after another first round loss this year is clear: a developing reputation as chokers. And a reputation like that is hard to shake.

Which brings me to what has been my favourite series to this point: Ducks-Sharks. It’s just fun. Chris Pronger and Jonathan Cheechoo had quite the battle going last night, with Cheechoo, who runs around like a maniacal ball of energy out there, goading big dumb Pronger into two silly crosschecking penalties. This caused Randy Carlyle to make the face of a man who’s just been told his flight is cancelled and he’ll have to take the Greyhound from Winnipeg to Vancouver. Normally I would find this funny — and really, it was — but because I picked the Ducks to win I am actually rooting for them here. (Yes, it feels dirty and all kinds of wrong.) I now feel I have new insight into what it must be like to be a Ducks fan and have to watch your team take a constant stream of idiotic penalties. It would be like having several highly-paid Christoph Schuberts on your roster. All you can do is shake your head.

My dear Blue Jackets are in a spot of trouble, looking overwhelmed in their series against Detroit. They’ve also had some pretty unfortunate bounces, but mostly Detroit just plain has them off their game. Trying to get things back on track, they’re doing some line shuffling and our old buddy Antoine Vermette now finds himself centring the team’s top line, with Rick Nash and Kristian Huselius as his wingers. Good luck with that, Antoine.

As the Senators head off to play for various countries at the World Championships — and isn’t it good to see Nick Foligno recognized by Team USA for his impressive play this season? — the rest of us are getting ready for the boatload of awesomeness known as the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Eight series. Hockey on TV almost all day, every day. I looked at the full schedule and had some kind of hockey fan heart attack. How am I supposed to decide what to watch?! There are some great matchups, and I can imagine almost all the series going either way.

Because I love being wrong and looking foolish, I have undertaken much painstaking statistical analysis and consulted my “gut instinct,” and will now predict the first round winners for you.

I’m also going to throw in an element of chaos by asking for help from one of my favourite bands: Radiohead. Radiohead is from England, and therefore probably totally unconnected to hockey. This ensures that their predictions will be unbiased. They will be helping me out through the medium of iToblerone, my trusty iPod, and his shuffle function. Like most iPods, iToblerone has psychic powers, and I feel he is at least as qualified to make playoff predictions as some monkey on TV.

In order to make myself seem like less of an idiot when nothing in this post comes to pass, I want to note that I won’t be terribly surprised at all if I’m wrong on every single pick, except one (see below).

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens: I despise the Habs, but I don’t think it’s bias talking when I say they’re screwed. The Bruins have looked fantastic almost all season. Oh sure, they had a bad stretch or two, but they seem to have got back on track now. The Habs, meanwhile, had essentially the same season this year as the Sens had last year (minus the trip to the Finals the year before), which isn’t a good thing. Tim Thomas was first in the NHL in both save percentage and goals against average this season, while Carey Price was replaced with some dude who can smoke five cigarettes at a time but unfortunately forgot how to tend goal. Habs suck; it’s all over but the riot in Montreal. And I, for one, am looking forward to seeing the massively overhyped centennial season end in flames.

My Prediction: Bruins in 5. To those who point out that people were saying that the Habs should sweep the Bruins last season but the Bruins still took the series to seven games? That’s true, but your argument loses steam due to one inescapable fact: Montreal still won.

Radiohead’s Prediction: Radiohead speaks through their song “Bishop’s Robes,” a somewhat obscure b-side about a frightening school principal. I assume the bishop in question is Bob Gainey, the religious imagery referencing the fact that Montrealers view hockey as a religion, which is why they’re willing to commit violent acts for it (”Children taught to kill, to tear themselves to bits on playing fields”). “I’m not going back, I won’t go back,” goes the refrain: no doubt this is the voice of the numerous impending free agents in Montreal. They don’t want to play for Gainey, their “bastard headmaster,” and can’t wait to get out of town, away from the crazy, violent fans. I conclude that Radiohead likes Boston.

(2) Washington Capitals vs. (7) New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist is most likely a better goalie than Jose Theodore, but I’m not sure it matters much: Washington’s offense averaged almost a full goal per game more than New York’s over the course of the season. The fact that Alex Ovechkin vs. Sean Avery is picking up mileage as one of the stories to watch during this round says, to me, that the outcome of this series isn’t really in question and people just need something to talk about. People who forget that this is Ovechkin, and he’ll probably just avery Avery right back.

My Prediction: Caps in 6.

Radiohead’s Prediction: “Fitter, Happier” from OK Computer. This bizarre Stephen Hawking-sounding rant about a middle aged person living a conventional life just screams Rangers to me. New York is where aging players go to fade into obscurity. They are older now, no longer “ridiculously teenaged and desperate,” but “at a better place, slower and more calculated.” The flipside of this is that there’s “no chance of escape,” for the player or, in some cases (Redden), the team. Perhaps the Rangers are “fitter, happier” since John Tortorella took over, but in the end they’re still “a pig, in a cage, on antibiotics” — the antithesis of Radiohead’s pick in this series: the young, vital Caps.

(3) New Jersey Devils vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes: A few weeks ago I was picking the Devils to win the Cup. Their play has declined so much since then, however, that I now seriously doubt they’ll even make it past this round. The Canes have been outstanding since the beginning of March, and they won the season series 3-1-0. Statistically, these two are quite even, but I think the Canes’ late-season momentum will carry them past the struggling Devils. On the other hand, if New Jersey can somehow regain the form they had while Martin Brodeur was out injured, they could easily win.

My Prediction: Canes in 6.

Radiohead’s Prediction: “Myxomatosis.” This is a tough one to interpret, but my feeling is that the song refers to Martin Brodeur. Like the character in the song, Brodeur has seen his star power used for marketing purposes, which ultimately may be his downfall: is it really a coincidence that the Devils have struggled since his record-setting win? “I don’t know why I feel so tongue-tied,” he might wonder. The first part of the song, about a “mongrel cat” who shows off “half a head” from an animal he’s killed, criticizes the Devils for resting on Brodeur’s accomplishment. You see, it’s only half a head. The Devils should have waited to start their celebration until they got the other half, playoff success, which Radiohead apparently feels is out of the picture for New Jersey this year. Unless they’re actually just talking about bunnies.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers: Well, I’m a big believer in the Curse of the Cup Finalists which sees the finalists from the previous year fail bigtime the next season. (I have to believe in it or the Sens’ performance in 2007-2008 would be too much to bear.) Combine that with the inexplicable feeling I’ve had all season long that the Flyers would do well this year and the motivation Philly should be able to draw on from having lost to the Pens last year, and it makes me feel like Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and the Flyers will be taking Crosby and Malkin down. Should be a great series.

My Prediction: Flyers in 6.

Radiohead’s Prediction: An oldie but a goody: “Anyone Can Play Guitar.” This is a song that seems entirely too light for what I think will be quite a rough series, but I guess Radiohead have their reasons for sending it to me. And I think those reasons include mocking Sidney Crosby with a song making fun of a prima donna. There’s even a reference to hair growth (”Grow my hair, I wanna be Jim Morrison”) that brings up some unpleasant memories. Then again, maybe they’re talking about Scott Hartnell. As much as this song treats its subject as a bit of a joke, the chorus is celebratory and all in all it’s pretty happy-go-lucky (for a Radiohead song). That’s more in tune with the annoyingly “cute” Penguins and their stupid let’s punch the goalie pre-game routines than it is with the Broadstreet Bullies. Oh Radiohead, why do you pain me by picking Pittsburgh?

Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Anaheim Ducks: People are saying these Sharks are different, but I don’t know. I’m not quite ready to let go of the “Sharks are chokers” thing yet. That’s partly due to their play down the stretch, which has been less than spectacular while the Ducks have been ridiculously good. Also, I was so badly scarred by the Ducks’ absolute domination of the Sens in the Final two years ago (nightmares! of Scott Niedermayer’s playoff beard!) that I can’t ever imagine them not kicking ass in the playoffs. I picked them to beat Dallas last year, too. Ultimately, I don’t really care who wins this one — I’m just really excited about it. It should be a total bloodbath. Woo hoo!

My Prediction: Ducks in 6.

Radiohead’s Prediction: “Karma Police.” So that’s a vote for the Sharks then.

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Columbus Blue Jackets: Like my esteemed colleague SLC at Five for Smiting, I found it a bit easier to make my picks this year with the Sens not playing. For the most part, I’m less emotionally involved in the outcome of this year’s playoffs than I ever could be with Ottawa in the running. This series is the big exception to that, as I’ve become very attached to the Blue Jackets this season and can’t find it in my heart to pick against them. That said, I do think the Wings are ripe for an upset. The Cup Finalists curse, plus the sucky goaltending and sloppy defense (20th in the NHL in goals allowed this year: not what you’d expect from one of the league’s best defensive teams), plus the fact that they’ve been playing like crap lately, plus Rick Nash’s two hat tricks against them this season, plus the Jackets’ 8-2 demolishment of them in early March, plus this, and … yeah. If there’s one thing I learned from the Sens last year it’s that you really can’t play badly all season and then expect to turn it up a notch in the playoffs just because you’ve been there before and now know what it takes. The bad habits you developed from not paying attention when you were playing all those lesser teams during the season will creep into your game and before you know it you’re golfing.

My Prediction: Jackets in 7. Carry the flag!

Radiohead’s Prediction: Another b-side, “Paperbag Writer.” “Blow into this paper bag / Go home and stop grinning at everyone / It was nice while it lasted but now it’s gone.” I can see two interpretations for this one. Either the Jackets need to accept that this year’s run just hit a big red wall, or Red Wings fans need to get over themselves because last year was last year and this year’s Jackets team might just make them breathe a little harder. I think it could go either way. But a subsequent line — “Take your armour off / You’re not under attack” — makes me think this one is for the Wings fans and their massive, out of control persecution complex. Still, Radiohead is fairly non-committal here. The one thing that does seem certain is that they predict a long, close series, possibly with lots of overtime.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) St. Louis Blues: This is a hard one to predict based on stats. The season series was tied 2-2. Special teams favour St. Louis, but the overall goals for and against numbers favour Vancouver. Both teams have had amazing records since the All-Star Break. In the end, Roberto Luongo and the one goal he allowed in his last three games put Vancouver over the top for me. He only played 54 games this season so he shouldn’t be too tired, and he looks as though he’s hitting the zone. And, uh, obviously his one goal against in three games is far superior to Chris Mason’s two goals against in three games … because … he’s Roberto Luongo? We’ll go with that.

My Prediction: Canucks in 6. I kinda hope Vancouver loses, though, because then I could listen to Canucks fans demand that Luongo be traded again and it would be pretty entertaining.

Radiohead’s Prediction: “Optimistic.” This appears to be about the Blues and their miraculous run from last place to 6th seed. “You can try the best you can,” they say, “the best you can is good enough.” To me, that sounds like a parent telling a child who came second that well, you know, you tried really hard but in the end you just didn’t have it. The fact that “the big fish eat the little ones” also seems to favour the higher seed in the series. Vancouver it is. One question: “dinosaurs roaming the Earth.” Is this about Keith Tkachuk or Mats Sundin?

(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Calgary Flames: The Flames are a rapidly sinking ship. Consider the fact that they had a 10 point lead over Vancouver at the end of February, and they still managed to finish second in the Northwest. That’s just plain sad. I don’t care how inexperienced the Hawks are (other than Nikolai Khabibulin … anyone remember that guy?); they swept the season series and have looked mighty good in their last few games.

My Prediction: Hawks in 5. I’m taking some heat for this from my good friend DHS of Scarlett Ice, who accused me of overdosing on crazy pills, but actually he’s been taking too much wacky crack.

Radiohead’s Prediction: Radiohead sends me the lovely ballad “Sail to the Moon,” which is about a father’s hopes and dreams for his son. “Maybe you’ll be President,” it goes, “but know right from wrong / Or in a flood you’ll build an ark and sail us to the moon.” Once the shivers running down my spine have subsided and I’ve wiped the tears away, I conclude that this is unqestionably a pick for young Jonathan Toews and his Blackhawks.

There you go. Radiohead and I are in agreement on most of this, and I think that’s pretty good evidence for you to use when you enter your picks in your pool.

Now, NHL, bring on the mingled violence, pain, and elation! I can’t wait for tomorrow.

And for those teams not in the dance this year, bring on the draft lottery! GO SENS GO! 5th or bust!

My dream of Guerin
came true: he waited to move.
Waited, and waited.

Schubert, you stinker!
Like neverending winter,
You won’t go away.

The Sharks and the Wings
Swirling winds, rumours flying
Yet Neil still remains.

Others I thought might
Blow ‘way like leaves in autumn:
Smith, Kelly – still here.

Contracts rise, cap sinks;
Defence: unchanged, incomplete.
What the hell, Murray?

Deadline excitement:
In the end, waters were calm.
An anticlimax.

Deadline excitement,
but yawn, I wake to Leafs talk.
No excitement there.

Kuba re-signed – WHAT?!
3 x 3.7 … okay.
Sign and trade? Please? Please?

Au revoir, Antoine.
Bienvenu, Pascal (and pick) …
Bring Hitch and a doc.

The trade deadline.

You may have heard: it’s tomorrow.

The Sens, as one of the few teams that is well and truly out of the playoff race, might be able to make a splash or two by auctioning off some players. Has Filip Kuba just scored his last goal for the Senators? Will Chris Neil ever be seen in an Ottawa uniform again? Is it finally time to show Christoph Schubert the way out of town?

Personally, I love the deadline. The rumours, the hype, the inevitable letdown when nothing happens: it’s all a nice break from the everyday NHL routine. I’m hoping for big things. It’d be awesome if some unexpected blockbuster mega deal went down. Of course, that probably isn’t likely.

That’s why I’m going to have to make my own fun, and present my thoughts throughout the day in haiku form.

See you tomorrow, when I wake up ridiculously early in order not to miss any of the super exciting action.