Sens at Land’s End

The Senators’ season is drawing rapidly to a close — hopefully quite rapidly, because I can’t actually take much more of this. The first two games of the series against the Penguins were at least entertaining, but since I attended game 3, my enthusiasm for the playoffs has been replaced by an overwhelming sense of frustration with many different things.

The team’s general poor play and lack of physicality.

Jason Spezza’s consistently poor decision-making.

The terrible officiating, and on top of that, the Penguins’ schoolyard penalty drawing tactics, which even Don Cherry has criticized. I realize Sens fans are considered whiners, but quite honestly, as I sat there watching the second period unfold on Sunday night, I wondered for the first time why I bother watching NHL hockey if this is how they decide the games when it matters.

The fact is: I never thought the Sens would win this series, nor do I think they have played well enough to win it. I would not argue that the officiating or bad luck has cost Ottawa the series. They’re overmatched, and they simply haven’t been very good.

But …

With the game tied at 1 in the second period on Sunday night, I watched as Marc-André Fleury and a Pens d-man took turns punching Nick Foligno in the head behind the play. No call, and within the next two minutes Evgeni Malkin had scored to put the Pens ahead. It’s a goal I refuse to acknowledge because Ottawa should have been on the power play when it happened. It’s also a goal that changed the game immensely.

Also on Sunday: repeat offender Matt Cooke hit Peter Regin from behind during the second period. The play was called boarding and Cooke got two minutes. I have most certainly seen players given 5-minute majors and ejected from games for less. A few seconds after coming out of the box, Cooke, who arguably shouldn’t even have been in the game at that point, assisted on the Sidney Crosby goal that put Pittsburgh up 3-1. He may also have interfered with Brian Elliott on the play. No goalie interference was called.

With the Penguins up 6-4 last night, Chris Kunitz cleared the puck over the glass. It was a clear delay of game penalty. It was the kind of thing that gets called all the time. But this time, it wasn’t called. Less than two minutes later, Kunitz, who should have been serving his penalty, scored the Pens’ seventh goal. So we were going to lose anyway. So great, let us lose on our own lack of merit. Why make it such a painful experience?

All this, plus the most poorly-timed broken glass in NHL history. At a certain point, you have to conclude that the universe, the hockey gods, the NHL — whoever — has seen fit to kick the Senators and their fanbase in the gut repeatedly until we’re down, and then kick us in the face over and over till we bleed once we’re on the ground. And there’s absolutely nothing we can do about it.

Call it fate. Call it conspiracy. Call it the bad luck that comes with playing badly. Call it whatever you like.

Bottom line: it sucks.

Once again, I’ve gone a long, long time without posting, but now that game 82 has been played and it’s all over, I thought I should … hang on. The season isn’t over yet? The Sens are in the playoffs? The Senators? The Ottawa Senators? Well. That was unexpected.

In my season preview post way back in October, I said this:

It seems too much to hope that everything will work out, so I’m not expecting much from this team. That said, I don’t know that the Sens are as bad as many people would have us believe. Certainly, the team’s depth at forward is much improved over last year. I also think Clouston was doing something right, and I see no reason to think he’ll suddenly become an awful coach. A full season playing under his system should benefit the team. The bottom line for me is that the Sens are no more or less of an unknown quantity than either of their fellow eastern Canadian teams, yet it seems more prognosticators are forecasting positive things for Toronto and/or Montreal than for Ottawa. In Puck Daddy’s staff prediction post this morning, for example, no one had the Sens placing higher than the Habs and only two of five posters guessed they’d finish ahead of the Leafs. Personally, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Ottawa did better than both Montreal and Toronto. I also wouldn’t die of shock if this team happened to squeak into the playoffs.

So as you can see by the fact that I’m still alive, I was right about the whole not dying of shock thing. I was also right about Montreal and Toronto. (Suckas!) I was wrong when I suggested that if the Sens made the playoffs, it would be by squeaking in: they made it in fairly comfortably, with enough room to spare that they clinched their playoff spot a full 10 days before the end of the season. Winning the Northeast Division was also within the realm of possibility until the last couple of weeks. All of  this happened thanks in large part to an incredible — in the true sense of the word: it was hard to believe — 11-game winning streak in January and early February that was without doubt the biggest highlight of the season. The celebration of Daniel Alfredsson’s 1,000th career game with the team will of course be another great moment Sens fans remember when they look back on 2009-2010. They might also remember the awful 1-7-1 post-Olympics stretch, but they’ll try not to think about it. And finally, they’ll remember that the team unexpectedly made it to the playoffs, and caused me to turn my post mortem into a –

Senators Playoff Preview Post! Yay!

Over the coming weeks, we’ll find out how Senators fans will remember the 2010 NHL playoffs. All we know so far — and it’s more than just about every other playoff-bound NHL fanbase knows — is the identity of our team’s first round opponent: the Sens will be taking on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Again. Three times in the last four years the Sens have made it to the playoffs, and three times they’ve played the Penguins. Other cities might get excited when the postseason version of The Crosby Show comes to town. In Ottawa, it’s old hat.

(Although: I have tickets to playoff homegame #1 and I admit, I’m excited to be seeing Crosby and Malkin play in person for the first time. Since the Olympics, I’ve had to revise my stance on Crosby. He’s now a beloved and revered figure to me. I took a vow right after the golden goal that I would never speak ill of Sid the Kid again and I intend to stick to that.)

During last night’s Buffalo-Ottawa game on CBC, Dean Brown commented that this playoff familiarity means the Sens will know exactly what to expect from the Pens this time around, which would probably be true if not for the fact that the Penguins have played seven playoff series, including two Cup Finals, one of which — the one they won — went to seven games, since the last time they met Ottawa in the playoffs. No, Dean, I’m pretty sure these Pens are not the same ones from two years ago. They’re a lot more experienced, and their playoff beards are (metaphorically) a bit fuller. This massive amount of recent playoff experience gives the Penguins a clear mental advantage in the series, but might it hurt them physically? Is it possible they’re just plain tired from all that hockey? I hope so, but even if they are, it’s hard to say at what point fatigue might kick in.

Statistically, this series actually looks extremely even. At the moment — keeping in mind that the Penguins still have one last game to play –  the two teams are exactly tied in goals against average (2.84) and penalty killing (84.3%). Pittsburgh’s power play (17.2%, 19th in the NHL) is slightly better than Ottawa’s (16.9%, 21st in the NHL). The season series was a 2-2-0 tie, with the Penguins outscoring the Sens by two goals overall. The Penguins have a better record post-Olympics than the Sens, but Ottawa has been better (7-2-1) in its last 10 games than Pittsburgh (4-4-2) has in its last 10. Ottawa went 2-2-1 in its last five games; Pittsburgh is 2-2-0 in its last four. Barring a massive Penguins win against the New York Islanders today, neither team appears to have much momentum on its side. The one number that does favour the Pens is, perhaps unsurprisingly, goalscoring: they have averaged 3 goals per game, good for fifth in the NHL, while the Sens managed only 2.68 (16th). Goaltending stats … favour the Sens?

• Marc-André Fleury: .905 SV%, 2.65 GAA
• Brian Elliott: .909 SV%, 2.57 GAA

Ah, but Fleury’s career playoff stats are superior. That would be because Elliott, um, doesn’t have any. So that’s good.

All these things are good to know, but the bottom line for me is that the Sens this season are like the little girl with the curl on her forehead from that poem which, wow, turns out to be by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow (who knew?): when they’re good, they’re very good indeed, but when they’re bad, they pretty much totally suck. I mean, they are stab-out-your-eyes atrocious. The thing that makes the Bad Sens so nefarious is that you just never know when they’re going to show up, so it’s hard to say which team we’ll get for the playoffs. There have been good signs — Mike Fisher scoring a few goals, for example, could mean he’s about to start a streak; Jason Spezza, Peter Regin, and Erik Karlsson have all been productive lately and that could continue — but the team’s play has certainly not been consistently good since their last winning streak ended. Aside from all that, the true state of Anton Volchenkov’s health is also an important unanswered question, as he will be needed to help shut down Crosby and Malkin.

My prediction for the series: who knows? I’m inclined to think Pittsburgh will win just because they’re the Penguins and they won the Cup last year. If the Bad Sens show up, Pittsburgh will probably sweep. If we get the Good Sens, well, I think they could give the Pens a run. If we get the Good Sens, and the Pens are tired, and the Cup Finalist Curse makes a comeback after taking last season off, then sure, the Sens could win. Why not? It’s definitely possible. I just don’t think it’s likely. I started this season with very few expectations and I’m keeping that same attitude heading into the postseason.

A lot of things have  happened since I last blogged about the Sens, for me personally and for the team. Let’s start with me:

• I spent the better part of three weeks in California, where I was able to attend homegames for both the Los Angeles Kings and the Anaheim Ducks. Coincidentally, the visiting opponent in both cases was the Ottawa Senators. I wore my Spezza jersey, cheered loudly, and managed not to get beaten up by Ducks fans, who are, despite what you might think, very friendly people. I witnessed two miracles during my time in California: a Jonathan Cheechoo goal in LA and an Ottawa shootout win in Anaheim. Well, technically, that’s three miracles since a shootout win and a win in Anaheim are both pretty rare.
• I finished school. HELL YES.
• I left Vancouver. I have now moved back to my beloved hometown of Ottawa. This move leaves me with a bit of a dilemma as I am no longer a displaced Senators fan and the title of my blog technically no longer applies. Some editing will be required, but I don’t think I’ll change the name. Thoughts?
• I joined the world of the gainfully employed. This partially explains why I haven’t been blogging: for once I have a job that actually requires me to spend most of the day working. The horror!

Major life changes, as you can see. Now, let’s recap what the Sens have been up to:

• Winning an assload of games.

I think that about covers it.

Tonight, the boys are back in town post-Olympics (OLYMPICS WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! CANADAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!) and we start to see just how much momentum they have left from their pre-pause play. Hopefully, it’s a lot. As friend of blog Senators Lost Cojones pointed out via email the other day, “NO Ottawa Senators were harmed in the making of this Olympics.” This is key. In fact, it’s fair to say that all Ottawa’s hockey Olympians suffered some form of embarrassment at the games — Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba, and Anton Volchenkov were all eliminated in the quarter finals, with Volchenkov’s Russian team suffering a tremendous ass kicking at the hands of Team Canada (CANADA WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!); Jarkko Ruutu won a bronze medal for Finland, but I’d like to see him try bragging about that after the so-bad-it-defies-belief collapse the Finns had against the United States in the semi final. Could the anger and shame these players feel motivate them to play at a higher level in Ottawa? Who knows, but we can hope so.

Deadline Fever

As you may have heard, tomorrow is the NHL trade deadline, a day when many NHL players start looking for moving companies. (By the way, Global Pack N’ Ship of Vancouver? Terrible.)

In advance of tomorrow’s frenzy, the Sens today sent San Jose’s second round pick to the New York Islanders in exchange for defenceman Andy Sutton. I’m going to be honest: I don’t know anything about this guy, but I looked him up and apparently he’s 6′6″. That’s really tall. With the pre-Olympics (CA-NA-DA! CA-NA-DA!)  trade of Alexandre Picard and the injury to the awful Chris Campoli, the blue line was looking a bit thin, so it makes sense for Bryan Murray to go after another d-man. Like I said, my Sutton knowledge is very thin but 12 points in 54 games this season on Long Island tells me he’s not an offensive force and he’s in the NHL’s top 25 hitters this season so I assume he’s a physical type. Balance on the Sens’ defensive line appears somewhat skewed now, with Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, Matt Carkner, and Sutton all being primarily defensive players and only Erik Karlsson and Filip Kuba expected to put up points. (Campoli is too bad to count.)

As for Volchenkov and his pending UFA status, I’m completely with The Universal Cynic on this one, as I said in my brief contribution to Cycle Like the Sedins’ Northeast Division deadline-themed post: I understand that Murray is in a predicament, but it simply does not make sense to trade a hugely important component of the team right now just to avoid losing him for nothing on July 1. The worst case scenario here — complete destruction of team chemistry, things fall apart, no playoffs, mass firings, trade the entire roster, move the team to Kansas City … okay, maybe that’s a bit of an embellishment, but it could be horrific — is bad enough to make the best case scenario not worth the risk. The A-Train should stay put, for now and hopefully forever.

There was a signing in Senators-land today: Bryan Murray rewarded Matt Carkner’s solid play with a two-year, $1.4 million one-way contract.

The timing of this deal strikes me as strange. Carkner has performed better than I think anyone expected to this point in the season, but it’s only been seven games and it seems a bit soon to conclude that he’ll keep it up forever. On the other hand, a cap hit of $700,000 would make Carkner the 191st best paid defenseman in the NHL this season. A number like that doesn’t seem like much to risk on a guy who can, at the very least, worry people and kill penalties. When you think about the somewhat inflated contracts of Chris Kelly, Chris Neil, and Mike Fisher, it’s unfortunately refreshing to see a hometown hero type of guy get a very reasonable, totally non-crippling deal from the Sens for once.

The interesting part of all this is wondering what it means for the Senators’ future roster. Ottawa’s defense looks rather crowded at the moment; if Filip Kuba ever happens to recover from whatever injury he’s dealing with, someone will have to come out of the lineup. The team also has Brian Lee down in Binghamton and the monstrous Jared Cowen in the pipeline. But:

• Anton Volchenkov is a UFA at the end of this season.
• Chris Campoli, Alexandre Picard, and Brian Lee are all RFAs at the end of this season.

That leaves four spots on the blueline definitely filled in 2010-2011: Chris Phillips, Carkner, Kuba, and presumably Erik Karlsson. It’s also possible that Cowen will make the leap to the NHL, which means five of six/seven positions may be filled before Campoli, Picard, Lee, and Volchenkov even enter the picture.

So. What is the deal here? What is Murray’s plan? It seems reasonable to assume that at least one and maybe two of Campoli, Picard, and Lee will not be back. Personally, I’d be inclined to re-sign Picard. He played very well paired with Kuba at times last season and he’s definitely looked more impressive than Campoli so far this year. As for Lee and Campoli, well, it wouldn’t break my heart to see either one walk (unless I started thinking about wasted first round picks).

The real question is: what will happen to Volchenkov? Is signing a very cheap player like Carkner a way of readying the payroll to give the A-Train his raise? I kind of hope so. Every time Volchenkov crushes another rookie, he reminds me why he’s one of my favourite players and I would hate to see him leave Ottawa. That said, I’m also with Nichols of The 6th Sens in not particularly wanting to see Volchenkov eat up $5 million of the Sens’ cap space for the foreseeable future (see Nichols’ post “What’s Volchenkov Worth?” for some good reading on this subject).

With that in mind, I wonder if signing a physical d-man like Carkner might be Murray’s attempt to fill a forthcoming Volchenkov-shaped void. I hope not: I like Carkner, but really … he’ll never be the A-Train.

Seven goals. Two shorties. Several players with multi-point games. A goal from each line. No major defensive woes. A bit of truculence. Steve Downie on his ass. Yep, this was a fun one.

Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, and Quaternary. At last! An offensive breakthrough! I really hope this is the start of a trend and not just some flukey one-time Tampa-induced outburst. No, I don’t expect them to start scoring seven per game, but three or four would be a level to aim for. It would be wonderful to think the offense has started to click.

Manic Michalek! This is what I’m going to be calling Milan Michalek due to his foot speed and his hilarious speed-talking in interviews. Michalek was clearly the star last night. Two shorthanded goals is pretty impressive, and it was exciting to see him get his first NHL hat trick.

All Aboard the A-Train, Part Whatever This Is. Yet another high profile rookie learned the hard way about Anton Volchenkov’s ability to throw a hard bodycheck last night. This time it was Victor Hedman who went down after a big hip check. It seems Volchenkov is on a mission to educate the young ‘uns this year. He’s had a fantastic start to the season.

Alas, Poor Giggles. Jason Spezza, on the other hand, probably hasn’t had the start he’d hoped for. With just three points in six games, he’s currently ninth on the Senators in scoring. Despite that, he’s playing very well. He’s leading the forwards in icetime, and he’s been noticeable doing little things like winning puck battles. Cory Clouston has been using him in all situations and Ray Ferraro singled him out during TSN’s broadcast last night for his “exemplary” effort in the game. Spezza has said he feels he’s starting to click with his linemates, Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo, and his beautiful pass to set up Michalek for the hat trick goal seems to back that up. No doubt Spezza will break through with some points soon — maybe even as soon as Saturday when the Sens play Montreal, a team Spezza has traditionally destroyed.

Is There a Matt Carkner Fan Club? Because I’d Like to Join. How long have Sens fans been waiting for someone to come along and beat the crap out of Steve Downie? Two years. That’s how long. Last night, Matt Carkner did exactly that. Afterwards, Carkner said: “Payback for McAmmond … I hate that little prick.” Music to our ears! Unsurprisingly, Downie went for the eye gouge and kick post-fight, but Carkner prevailed because Downie is a pathetic little boy and Carkner is awesome.

No I in Beatdown. I also saw Carkner standing up in the penalty box and cheering after one of the Sens’ goals. He seems to be a real team player, and his kind of attitude appears to be one Cory Clouston has somehow managed to cultivate on this Senators team. From the Sun:

“The atmosphere is good on this team,” Volchenkov said when asked to explain his early season success. “It feels good. I like playing with this team.”

You can see this positive atmosphere in the way they’re standing up for each other, and in the small stuff like Spezza grabbing the puck as a souvenir after Michalek scored his third goal. I also see it, or think I see it, in how I feel after I watch the games. I come away from Sens games these days feeling that I haven’t really noticed any one forward or forward line standing out (last night Michalek was the obvious exception), but they’ve all generally played well. I think what I mean is best expressed by Spezza’s good play, and by the fact that I was really shocked to discover that Daniel Alfredsson is the team’s leading scorer with seven points right now. His performance hasn’t stood out to me as being particularly strong; in fact, I thought he was having a rather slow start.

Now, this team-wide invisibility could be a horribly negative thing if it meant all the forwards were playing badly, but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. They’re just quietly going about the business of, you know, winning a few games. Their philosophy seems to be that there’s no need to be flashy: just get the job done. The Sens are playing a real team game so far, and it definitely feels good to watch.

Toot Toot

If I may belatedly promote myself a bit: I was asked to contribute a short piece on the Sens’ “sore thumb” — that is, the one issue that might be the team’s greatest weakness this season — for Cycle Like the Sedins. No, my answer was not “everything.” See what I came up with here.